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Overnight, the main Shanghai aluminum 2209 closed at 18660, up 160, and LME aluminum closed at 2439, up 32; Macro: The market expects annual inflation in the United States to be 8.
7% in July, but lower than 9.
1% in June, and if inflation still exceeds expectations, it will raise expectations for a further 75 basis point rate hike in September
.
Nearing delivery, the short-term structure is stronger, but considering that spot is still weak and inventories are still abundant, structural strength is not expected to be sustainable
.
According to institutional feedback, there are some sources of aluminum ingots in transit in Wuxi, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase in the later period, and the inventory of aluminum ingots will face the pressure
of accumulation.
On the supply side: Daily production is expected to pick up
month-on-month in August.
Consumption: Downstream short-term demand rebounds weakly, and medium-term demand is pessimistic
.
Overall, domestic supply has grown sharply, the market has maintained pessimism about real estate demand expectations, oversupply and demand are significant, and aluminum prices may continue to be under pressure
.
