Shanghai aluminum afternoon review on July 12

On the macro level, the domestic epidemic has broken out in many points, and the lockdown has been upgraded; The United States added 372,000 new non-farm payrolls in June, far exceeding expectations by an increase of 268,000, strengthening the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates this month; the increase in social finance data in June exceeded 5 trillion, an increase of 1.
47 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the increase in medium and long-term loans was significant, indicating that demand has recovered;

In terms of fundamentals, SMM stocks on the 11th reported 723,000 tons, unchanged from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 113,000 tons, down 04,500 tons from last Thursday; exports remained high in May 2022, and China exported 676,600 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in May; the cumulative export from January to May was 2.
9018 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.
2%.
In May, imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 188,500 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 896,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.
2%.

A year-on-year decrease of 24.
9
%.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity once again entered the peak of starting production and resuming production, and enterprises such as Liancheng Aluminum and Bai Mine started to resume production, supply continued to rise, and domestic demand was weak
.

The domestic epidemic is increasing, the recovery prospects are weak, overseas recession fears remain overshadowed, the dollar is strong, and commodities are suppressed
.
Fundamentals are performing poorly, demand continues to decline, transactions are poor, and inventories are expected to rebound
.
It is expected that the rebound of aluminum prices will not be large, and it is recommended to go short
at the high.