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Shanghai aluminum opened sharply lower overnight and returned to around 20200, dragged
down by consumption.
Shanghai spot aluminum ingot quotation 20700-20740 yuan / ton, the average price of 20720 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, the 2205 contract is quoted at 60 ~ 20 yuan / ton
.
Intraday trading is still light, and the large accumulation of electrolytic aluminum after the festival highlights that consumption is still weak
under the influence of the epidemic.
Paying attention to the performance of consumption in the later period, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will operate
under pressure and shock.
In terms of fundamentals, yesterday's aluminum ingot inventory increased by 51,000 tons, aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons, most of the May Day holiday in previous years was to inventory, the data is extremely bearish; in addition, the epidemic situation in Wuxi area is severe again, in addition to the enterprises that guarantee supply, Jiangyin area announced that all shutdowns, Jiangyin is an aluminum consumption town, the policy has a greater negative impact on consumption, and yesterday's Politburo meeting set the tone, we must unswervingly adhere to the general policy of "dynamic zeroing", and resolutely deal with all distortions, doubts, Words and deeds that deny China's national defense guidelines and policies are fighting, so the market expects that the peak season in May will still show a scene of low peak season, and the market sentiment is pessimistic, prompting aluminum prices to continue to fall
.
From the fundamental situation, the supply side continues to recover, the current consumption recovery is limited, but according to the current consumption situation is expected to be able to go to the warehouse in the second quarter, on the other hand, the cost side has a downward risk, the new thermal coal price limit is about to be implemented, weakening the certainty of the unilateral upward movement of aluminum prices, and aluminum prices are expected to still operate at a high level
.
