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Today's Shanghai aluminum main month 2009 contract opened at 14,700 yuan / ton, the highest intraday was 14,815 yuan / ton, the lowest was 14,605 yuan / ton, the settlement was 14,720 yuan / ton, and the end closed at 14,660 yuan / ton, down 65 yuan
.
Today's Shanghai aluminum weak shock, global economic data performance is better, inventories are at a low level, there is some support
at the bottom of aluminum prices.
In terms of demand, Guangdong from the downstream feedback, the overall demand situation in July weakened month-on-month, major enterprises reduced new orders, large enterprises can still rely on the previously accumulated orders to meet production, but many small and medium-sized factories have to make obvious adjustments to production, so the purchase volume is significantly reduced, most of the time wait-and-see, and the impact on the supply of vehicles to the factory is greater
.
In terms of imports, the recent import of aluminum ingots continues to flow, the market appears Rusal, Malaysia Qili, India Vedanta, Indonesia Hansa, Iran Southern Aluminum, Australia Rio Tinto and many other countries and brands of aluminum ingots, according to the cost of import and element composition, generally cheaper than ordinary domestic aluminum ingots 30-150 yuan / ton
.
From the plate point of view, the capital showed a slight inflow, the main long position of the exchange increased more, it is recommended that the 09 contract be renewed cautiously, and the upper pressure level is 15000
.
On the supply side: high profits stimulated the resumption of production, several enterprises resumed production, and three companies planned to put into operation in August; Cost side: Alumina prices are weak, profits are still at a high level
.
In terms of premium discount: domestic spot maintained premium but narrowed the range, while aluminum premium remained at a high level; In terms of stocks: LME stocks increased to 1.
64 million tons, down 0.
07 million tons to 221,800 tons in the previous period, and social banks increased by 05,000 tons to 693,000 tons
.
From the perspective of supply and demand, although inventories remain low and have not accumulated significantly, spot supply is sufficient and demand still has many uncertainties, and the marginal supply and demand structure has weakened
.
However, due to the current low inventory and the rhythm of domestic production capacity release, aluminum prices are dominated by funds, and the game between strong reality and weak expectations is becoming increasingly intense
.
However, in the medium and long term, such a high profit aluminum price is bound to lead to the accelerated release of supply, and it is difficult for demand to increase under the influence of the epidemic, and the stage of inventory accumulation can be encountered
.
However, until the release of production capacity, the strong spot support of low inventory is still maintained
.
