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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract bottomed out, cutting some of the intraday declines, closing at 12665 yuan / ton, slightly down 0.
35% from yesterday's closing price, the current Shanghai aluminum effectively stabilized above the moving average group, the technical form is stronger than other non-ferrous metals
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1611 and 1612 contracts remained at 235 yuan / ton, indicating that the near-term contract was much stronger than the forward
.
Externally: Asian Lun aluminum fell slightly under pressure, of which 3-month Lun aluminum fell 0.
18% to 1677 US dollars / ton, continuing the high oscillation finishing in the past two weeks, the current Lun aluminum is still stable above the moving average group, but the short-term Lun aluminum RSI indicator rose to the overbought area, need to be vigilant about the demand for technical correction, short-term operating range focus on 1710-1660 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index stabilized to around 97.
65, and U.
S.
crude oil futures edged up 0.
35%, basically maintaining this week's gains
.
The market is now focused on the minutes of the September FOMC meeting released in the early hours of Thursday morning, which may reveal the strength of the hawkish camp, and also need to pay attention to China's September trade data
on Thursday.
In terms of the industry, according to SMM survey data, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased to 2.
705 million tons in September, an increase of 6.
5% year-on-year, and the new annualized operating capacity was about 744,000 tons to 32.
911 million tons, including Shandong Weiqiao, Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Hope, Guangxi Baimine and other new production capacity release, including Gansu Liancheng, Shanxi Zhaofeng, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Sichuan Qixing and other aluminum enterprises further resumed production, driving the overall operation capacity to increase
.
In terms of market: on October 12, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 13250-13280 yuan / ton, flat water to premium 30 yuan / ton in the month, Wuxi transaction concentration 13250-13270 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 13310-13330 yuan / ton
。 Xinjiang Railway Bureau raised the aluminum ingot transportation fee from October 13-31, smelters are eager to transport aluminum ingots out of Xinjiang before the freight rate is raised, smelters are worried about the increase in the arrival of aluminum ingots in the later period, and the month change is approaching, smelters have a strong willingness to exchange cash, especially in Wuxi, spot prices continue to decline sharply, middlemen due to concerns about the continuous decline in premium, hedging risk is higher, the mentality of receiving goods is still cautious, downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on demand, the market shows oversupply, and the selling sentiment is strong.
The volume of purchases contributed by middlemen has weakened
.
Today's Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract fell slightly to 12665 yuan / ton under pressure, as the rise in U.
S.
crude oil futures slowed and the rise in domestic electrolytic aluminum production in September hit the aluminum market with oversupply concerns
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract should be cautious in chasing long, reduce its holdings at a high price, and pay attention to the opportunity
to make up for the long order below 12,500 yuan.
