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Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated higher, the overall oscillation above 22000, closing at 22670 yuan / ton on the 11th, a weekly increase of 1.
7%.
In terms of news, due to the concentration of production capacity in Guangxi, Bose accounts for 81.
5% of the province's production capacity, the fermentation of the epidemic in Bose has caused greater concern in the market, there is uncertainty in the duration of the epidemic, the upgrading of traffic control in the province, and the interregional transportation hinders the stocking of raw materials for electrolytic aluminum plants, and the current shutdown of 420,000 tons of scale may continue to expand
.
On the macro front, the US CPI data released that the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate hike may be a foregone conclusion, and market sentiment has fallen
as inflation pressure eases.
On the supply side, it is expected that the average daily production of domestic electrolytic aluminum in February may increase slightly to 104,000 tons / day, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production in February (28 days) is expected to be around
2.
91 million tons.
On the demand side, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream leading processing enterprises fell by 2.
4 percentage points to 54.
5%
this week.
Although the resumption of work after the holiday has begun, the operating rate of some enterprises has not yet returned to normal levels
.
On the other hand, in early February, some enterprises in Henan, Shandong and other places encountered environmental protection control, and the operating rate of aluminum strip of many leading enterprises in Henan plummeted, and the operating rate of aluminum cable was less than expected
.
Next week, it is expected that the resumption of production will progress steadily, and the operating rate of recycled alloys and other sectors is expected to rise, but it is necessary to be vigilant against environmental protection and other factors dragging down the operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises
.
In terms of inventory, up to now, the social stock of aluminum ingots is 866,000 tons, an increase of about 140,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and Wuxi and Nanhai regions have contributed mainly to the increase
.
The sharp rise in the market of aluminum led to the closure of the aluminum ingot import window, the insufficient amount of imported aluminum ingots coupled with the slow resumption of domestic electrolytic aluminum production, production capacity is still in the climbing stage, the current domestic aluminum ingot accumulation speed is relatively slow, the accumulation range is weaker than in previous years and less than expected, to a certain extent favorable to aluminum prices
.
In the short term, aluminum prices will continue the trend of shock correction, or there is still some downward space; The lower support focuses on 22,000.
In the medium and long term, downstream consumption is expected to continue to support prices to remain high
.