Shanghai aluminum is recommended to be treated with a wait-and-see approach in the short term

Yesterday's aluminum price trend was weak, since last week's aluminum price returned to the 20,000 mark, demand performance began to be weak, downstream chasing higher is more hesitant, procurement enthusiasm is insufficient, market transactions tend to be cautious, aluminum prices further upward pressure increased
.
Domestic supply has basically maintained stable operation, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, and the production output in the early stage has continued to be released
.
In terms of cost, the current alumina price inflection point has appeared, in the process of price falling, the market buying up not buying down mentality began to appear, the market wait-and-see attitude gradually strengthened
.
In terms of consumption, as the epidemic gradually improves, many automakers in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai are gradually resuming work and production, which may stimulate the start and recovery of automotive aluminum processing enterprises
.

In terms of stocks, as of May 16, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 984,000 tons, down 19,000 tons
from last Thursday.
As of May 17, LME aluminum stocks decreased by 0.
513 million tons from the previous session to 527,400 tons
.
With the improvement of the epidemic and the support of policies for transportation, domestic social stocks were destocked within a week, and overseas stocks fell to about 520,000 tons, at a historical low
.

Overall, the resumption of new production on the domestic supply side is still proceeding steadily, the increase in production continues to be released, and the restraining effect of the epidemic on downstream consumption still exists, limiting demand under the traditional peak season
.
Considering that the current incremental release of the market supply side is more certain than the demand on the consumer side, aluminum prices are still under pressure in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the degree of improvement of the epidemic and the degree of downstream consumption recovery, and it is recommended to treat
it with a wait-and-see approach in the short term.