Shanghai aluminum low opening shock operation There is still a possibility of weakening in the short term

Last night's US CPI data was released at 8.
8% expected, and the actual value was 9.
1%, far exceeding expectations for inflation data, which pushed up market expectations
for the magnitude of interest rate hikes.
At present, 75BP is still the mainstream expectation, but the possibility of 100BP increases
.
The overseas recession and the domestic epidemic problem still maintain greater pressure
on the macro side.

From a fundamental point of view, due to the impact of the off-season, short-term demand slows down, and there may be a certain degree of downward movement
.
The shipment data of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has declined
significantly.
In addition to the automotive sector, the end market is relatively sluggish, especially in real estate, which has a greater
drag on aluminum demand.
In addition, the June aluminum export data remained relatively high, but it is expected that it will weaken in the future
.

On the supply side, the resumption of production in Gansu and Guangxi is still underway, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the decline in subjective willingness to increase production due to the rapid decline in aluminum prices
.

Overseas, Nord Stream 1 officially stopped gas transmission on Monday, TTF natural gas prices remained high, and stopping for 10 days or longer became the focus of the
game.

In summary, macro under pressure, medium and long-term downward trend unchanged, short-term cost support test continues, if macro and demand expectations further weaken, do not rule out the possibility
of falling below 10,000.