Shanghai aluminum may be difficult to fall below the cost line, and the external market is subject to macro disturbances

As of October 7, Lun aluminum closed at 2301.
5 US dollars / ton, a weekly increase of 7.
45%, and the highest touched 2420 US dollars / ton
.
The rally was clearly driven
by the two wheels of macro and fundamentals.

On the macro front, expectations of a US interest rate hike weakened during the National Day period, and the US index fell back to around 109, but as the US index rebounded again, the rally of London aluminum was suppressed
.

From a fundamental point of view, rumors of RUSAL delivery or LME ban and low inventory problems are the main reasons
for stimulating the upward trend of Lun Aluminum.
The further fermentation of Rusal rumors is the main reason why
Lun Aluminum led the overseas nonferrous metal in the early days of the National Day.
Rusal is the world's largest source of primary aluminum supply outside China, and if it cannot enter the LME delivery, it will greatly increase the risk of
Lun Aluminum being forced to take a position.

According to CRU data, from January to August this year, the global aluminum production was 45.
733 million tons, except for China's output of 19.
179 million tons, Russia (Lun aluminum) output of 2.
654 million tons, Rusal accounted for about 14%
of China's foreign primary aluminum supply.

Judging from the experience of the US sanctions against Rusal in 2018, the result of European and American sanctions against Rusal is likely to be a loss for both sides, and it is difficult to continue for a long time; And the LME has already experienced the London nickel incident, and it must be intolerable for it to force positions to occur again in the short term; Second, Rusal, which cannot go to Europe and the United States, may flood into China
.
Therefore, it is expected that the impact of the event will be short-term, sentimental, and less domestic than overseas
.

In addition, the current global primary aluminum explicit inventory is at a historical low, LME inventory continued to decline during the National Day, and the SHFE inventory before the holiday fell sharply, further weakening the supply elasticity and strengthening cost support
.
As of October 7, LME stocks were about 327,600 tons, a level equal to only about four days of aluminum used overseas
.
Domestic SHFE stocks also plunged by 35,500 mt, or 17%,
on the last day before the holiday.
It is expected that before the accumulation of inventory, it will be difficult for Shanghai aluminum to fall below the cost line, while Lun aluminum will be more disturbed by overseas macro policies
.