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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1704 contract opened high and volatile downward, and the midday decline accelerated to expand, closing at 14365 yuan / ton at the end of the day, up 10 yuan / ton from yesterday's settlement price, a daily increase of 0.
07%, the position decreased by 2770 lots, and the trading volume was 407896 lots
.
In terms of futures structure, the aluminum market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the regular price of Shanghai aluminum 1703 and 1704 contracts shrank to 90 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to resist decline has weakened
.
In terms of external trading: Asian Lun aluminum fluctuated downward, driving Shanghai aluminum all the way down at midday, and the lowest 3-month aluminum fell to 1896.
97 US dollars / ton, and is now trading around
1905 US dollars / ton.
On February 14, Lun Aluminum held 700,000 lots and reduced its position by 2,314 lots, and the sharp rise in the position showed that the short flat opened frequently, but the position continued to shrink, and there may be consolidation
in the short term.
Macro: The Asian dollar index fell under pressure, falling as low as 100.
87 and now trading at 100.
89
.
In addition, last night, according to the latest data from the US Department of Labor, the US CPI in January was 0.
6% month-on-month, sharply higher than expected and the largest increase since February 2013
.
The January CPI also rose further to 2.
5% year-on-year, the biggest increase since March 2012
.
Aluminum industry information, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) official website report shows that the global primary aluminum market supply shortage of 985,000 tons in 2016, and 659,000 tons
in 2015.
Market: On February 16, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 14140-14160 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 220-200 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 14120-14140 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 14150-14170 yuan / ton
.
Holders are eager to exchange cash at the high, middlemen have limited speculative opportunities, mainly for downstream pick-ups, the high level of aluminum fluctuates violently, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the overall transaction is cautious
.
The Shanghai aluminum 1704 contract was driven by the external market during the day, and the decline in midday expanded, and the volatility was more violent; And after the bulls dominated by the previous trading days, the long-short competition in these two days was more intense
.
On the technical side, the position remained high, and the MACD red energy column did not shrink significantly, indicating that the upward momentum of the future market still exists
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1704 contract refer to 14250 yuan / ton for long, and the stop loss reference is 14100 yuan / ton
.
