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Today, the Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract passively followed up, closing at 12065 yuan / ton, up 1.
26%
from yesterday's closing price.
At present, Shanghai aluminum is still running below the moving average group, and the short-term downside risk remains
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1610 and 1611 contracts narrowed to 225 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to fall was significantly weakened
.
Externally: Asian Lun aluminum continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, trading is still very light, of which 3-month Lun aluminum slightly rose 0.
03% to 1584 US dollars / ton, so that Lun aluminum barely ran around M60, but the short-term Lun aluminum RSI indicator fell to the oversold area, need to be vigilant of technical correction needs, lower support to focus on 1550 US dollars / ton, upper rebound resistance 1650 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index continued to fall, further cutting the larger gains recorded on Friday, and is now trading around
95.
7.
The RBA's minutes for its September meeting released today hinted at a decline
in expectations of future rate cuts.
In addition, the market is currently focused on this week's Fed interest rate meeting, and expectations of interest rate hikes remain.
In terms of industry, China's primary aluminum production in August was 2.
713 million tons, down 0.
3% year-on-year, and the cumulative output of primary aluminum from January to August was 20.
688 million tons, down 1.
8%
year-on-year.
Market: On September 20, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12510-12540 yuan / ton, the monthly premium was 210-230 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 12500-12520 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 12500-12520 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai Wuxi inventory has been greatly reduced, holders continue to sell at high prices, the circulation of goods has decreased, the market is bullish on the spot price of aluminum ingots before the National Day, the willingness to receive goods is positive, the circulating sources in the market are quickly digested, and the overall transaction continues yesterday's activity
.
Before the National Day holiday, the high spot premium is likely to be maintained
.
News: European and American spot aluminum premium stabilized, financing transactions increased, and rising demand made the market supply tight, but Japan's aluminum premium continued to weaken due to oversupply, and the aluminum premium in the three places has steadily declined for most of this year, down by about one-third
.
During the day, the Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract oscillation rose slightly to 12065 yuan / ton, the performance is still weaker than other base metals, in view of the August primary aluminum production re-climbed month-on-month, showing that the domestic aluminum market supply pressure is greater, while the technical Shanghai aluminum bias space situation has not changed, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract can be backed by 12150 yuan below cautious short, the target reference 11900 yuan / ton
.
