Shanghai aluminum phased rebound short-term recommendation to wait and see the idea to treat

Domestically, the supply side has continued to resume production and the planned release of new production capacity since June, mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Gansu, Guangxi and other places
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In terms of consumption, although a series of encouraging policies have been released one after another, the overall real estate data is relatively sluggish, and the performance of aluminum profile orders is weak; Shanghai car companies have fully resumed work and production, and the automotive sector is expected to be good; The performance of the new energy field continues to be impressive
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In terms of inventory, domestic social treasury data continued to destock, and LME inventories continued to decline
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Fundamentally, destocking continues
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On Monday, aluminum ingots were destocked by 28,000 tons to 757,000 tons, and aluminum rods were destocked by 04,900 tons to 114,000 tons
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In addition, the downstream orders are insufficient, the processing fee for profiles and aluminum plates, strips and foils has been reduced, and in the short term, China has passed the stage of concentrated demand growth after the resumption of work and production in Shanghai, and the future demand increment is limited
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In terms of price, the phased rebound of aluminum prices needs to see the stimulus of the policy and the recovery of spot liquidity, and the rebound is highly subject to the pressure of the supply side, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term
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