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    Home > Chemicals Industry > New Chemical Materials > Shanghai aluminum rebounds after opening low and will fluctuate widely in the short term

    Shanghai aluminum rebounds after opening low and will fluctuate widely in the short term

    • Last Update: 2022-12-25
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    On Friday, the external aluminum price closed lower, and the LME three-month aluminum price fell 0.
    48% to $2393.
    5 / ton
    .
    Shanghai aluminum rebounded after opening low overnight, stimulating policy expectations to make aluminum prices rebound
    with other metals.
    The main 2209 contract closed above 18530 yuan / ton
    .

    Aluminum prices

    In terms of market, the morning spot market East China South China showed differences, East China market transaction is acceptable, downstream weekend stocking, holders slightly high price selling, Shanghai mainstream transaction price around 18410 yuan / ton, compared with futures discount of about
    10.
    The South China market traded lightly, and the mainstream transaction price was around 18280 yuan / ton
    .

    On the supply side, alumina reductions, production stoppages and new production capacity coexist, and production growth is expected to slow down in August; Although the profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting has been restored, the impact of power cuts in Sichuan has expanded due to high temperature weather, and electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be about 3.
    47 million tons in August, which is less than expected, while imported aluminum provides a small supplement
    .

    In terms of consumption, the off-season effect is obvious, superimposed on the impact of power cuts, and export demand is facing downward pressure, so terminal demand continues to be
    flat.
    Last week, domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks fell by 13,000 tons, and bonded zone stocks increased by 3,500 tons
    .

    In terms of news, the weekly operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises fell by 0.
    1% to 65.
    7%
    this week.
    Among them, the downstream sector most affected by power curtailment is recycled aluminum alloy, and the weekly operating rate fell by 1.
    2% to 47.
    9%; Aluminum cable companies are approaching the delivery date to accelerate work, and the operating rate this week rose 1% to 58%.

    According to Baichuan survey data, Henan is also currently affected by power cuts, and the operating capacity of the region is about 1.
    91 million tons
    .
    Aluminum plant shutdowns have also occurred overseas, but the actual production impact is limited
    .
    It is still necessary to pay attention to the changes
    in the scale and timing of subsequent shutdowns.

    Hydro issued an announcement that its Sunndal aluminum plant in Norway workers will hold a strike on August 22, the aluminum plant will stop production by 20% in the first four weeks, the total capacity of Sunndal aluminum plant is 390,000 tons / year, the strike will involve a production capacity of about 80,000 tons / year; In addition, Hydro plans to close its aluminum plant in Slovakia in September, with an existing capacity of about 100,000 tons
    .

    Recently, aluminum plant production cuts at home and abroad have occurred one after another, and the scale of aluminum plant production in Sichuan may reach 800,000 tons, but Gansu, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia and other regions still have new and resumed production capacity, and the terminal demand led by real estate continues to be sluggish, the macro atmosphere is empty, supply and demand are weak, aluminum prices will fluctuate widely in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see
    .
    It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of power cuts on the supply and demand side in Sichuan-Chongqing area, as well as the changes
    in domestic social inventory.

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