Shanghai aluminum returns to fundamental operation in the short term, and will continue to be strong and volatile

Last week's trend of London aluminum showed a bottoming rebound, with a cumulative decline of about 1.
1%; Considering that many aluminum smelters in Europe will still face certain production reduction storms, coupled with the continuous decline in overseas inventories, it is expected that Lun Aluminum will maintain a high and strong trend in recent days, and is expected to continue to hit the 3500 mark and break through to stand firm
.

In terms of the market, the circulation of goods in the spot market has tightened slightly, and traders dare not receive too much goods due to the impact of the epidemic, and the overall market transaction is not as good as the previous week
.
East China: coinciding with the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the early stage, and with the landing of interest rate hikes, in line with market expectations, aluminum returned to the basic game; The overall performance of electrolytic aluminum prices in the week first fluctuated and then rose, especially on Thursday and Friday, the increase was outstanding, as of Friday, East China spot aluminum prices in 22500-22540 yuan / ton, up 640 yuan / ton, spot discount 40 yuan / ton
.

South China: As of Friday, the price of Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingots with tickets was between 22890-22990 yuan / ton, up 820 yuan / ton from the previous month, performing better than East China, and the current price difference between East China and South China is about 420 yuan; In terms of market transactions, downstream enterprises just need to receive goods, and some enterprises such as Shenzhen have been affected by the
epidemic.

In the macro aspect, whether it is the Russian-Ukrainian conflict or the Fed's first interest rate hike in recent years, the impact on aluminum prices is relatively limited; On the one hand, there has been no substantial progress on the Russia-Ukraine issue, on the other hand, the Fed's interest rate hike is within expectations, the market performance is calm, and to a certain extent, nervousness has been released; From the perspective of domestic news, the social library ushered in the inflection point of destocking during the week, superimposed on the stimulation of strong expectations of downstream consumption, aluminum prices experienced three consecutive rises, and the increase was more than 1,000 yuan
.

Overall, the macro disturbance factors weakened during the week, and aluminum prices mostly returned to fundamental operation, and considering that the current inventory at home and abroad remained dematerialized and was at a low level compared with previous years, it is expected that aluminum prices will continue to perform strongly and fluctuate
.