Shanghai aluminum rush high pullback is expected to adjust to the high level of the market in the future

Market focus: (1) Recently, the number of new coronary pneumonia confirmed in Japan, India and other countries has risen significantly, of which India has confirmed more than 200,000
new cases for 7 consecutive days.
(2) At 19:45 Beijing time on Thursday, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision, followed by ECB President Lagarde holding a press conference
.
The market does not expect the ECB to adjust interest rates, asset purchase programs and bank lending programs
.
(3) WBMS data, the global primary aluminum market supply gap from January to February was less than 1,000 tons, and the oversupply was 840,000 tons
last year.
(4) Customs data, China's imports of alumina in March 2021 were about 268,200 tons, down 20.
80% year-on-year; The export of alumina was about 4504 tons, down 46.
08%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On April 22, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 18160-18200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18180 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 140 yuan / ton
.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo holders actively shipped, the downstream cautiously purchased on demand, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was general, and the overall transaction was average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 151186 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 4,650 tons, a 4-day decline; On April 21, LME stocks were 1812625 tons, down 3,375 tons per day, down for 9 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2106 contract 169388 lots, an increase of 7439 lots per day, a daily increase of 183178 short positions, a daily increase of 14829 lots, a net short position of 13790 lots, a daily increase of 7390 lots, long and short increases, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2106 rushed back on
April 22.
The Bank of Canada scaled back its bond-buying program, becoming the first major economy to pull back on emergency monetary stimulus, and the dollar index came under pressure; However, the new coronavirus infection in some countries has recently surged, and risk appetite has cooled
.
At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum plant is basically in a state of full production, the growth space of the operating rate is limited, and under the domestic carbon neutrality goal, as a high-energy-consuming industry, the production capacity and output of electrolytic aluminum will be limited
.
Recently, domestic aluminum ingot inventories have turned into a downward trend, and the traditional consumption season has gradually emerged, which has strong support for aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream short positions of the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased their positions sharply, paying attention to the support of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected that the market will adjust
at a high level in the future.