Shanghai aluminum upward driving is sufficient, there is still some room for growth

Market focus: (1) The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate near zero, but said that the rate hike could be a little earlier than expected, and half of the committee members now believe that the first rate hike will occur
in 2022.
The Fed also sharply cut its U.
S.
economic growth forecast for this year, while saying it may soon slow the pace
of bond purchases.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 23300-23340 yuan / ton, the average price was 23320 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan
per day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 96,504 tons, a daily decrease of 247 tons; LME stocks were 1289075 tonnes, down 15,650 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2111 contract held 183075 lots, with a daily increase of 9771 lots, short positions of 190681 lots, a daily increase of 16396 lots, a net short position of 7606 lots, net long to net short, long and short increased
.

Market analysis: The Fed meeting statement showed that the benchmark interest rate was unchanged and said that it may soon slow down the pace of bond purchases, and the dollar strengthened but had little impact on Shanghai aluminum
.
At the same time, factors such as the energy crisis in Europe, the shortage of hydropower in Brazil, and the shortage of coal power in India have caused overseas supply concerns
.
Domestically, the recent power shortage and energy consumption dual control policy continued to ferment, the dual control measures for energy consumption in nine provinces were upgraded, it still took time for electrolyzers to recover in some areas, and the supply of aluminum market continued to contract, forming a strong support
for futures prices.
In the short term, the upward drive of aluminum prices is sufficient, and there is still some upside
.