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On Monday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum encountered obstacles to the upside, with the highest intraday 17545 yuan / ton, the lowest 17170 yuan / ton, and the close of 17260 yuan / ton, up 0.
09% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME aluminum fell under pressure, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2178.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
25%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The US Senate passed a $1.
9 trillion economic stimulus package with 50 votes in favor and 49 votes against to cope with the impact
of the new crown epidemic on the economy.
(2) The United States added 379,000 non-farm payrolls in February, far exceeding market estimates of 180,000 and January recording 49,000, the largest increase since October last year
.
(3) According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first two months of 2021, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and manufactured goods were 842125 tons, an increase of 25.
9%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On March 8, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 17470-17510 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17490 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 390 yuan / ton
.
Holders actively ship, the willingness to receive goods is weak, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is average, and the transaction performance is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total amount of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 117535 tons, flat; On March 4, LME aluminum stocks were 1299150 tons, down 625 tons per day, down 22 consecutive days
.
As of the week of March 5, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 350694 tons, a weekly increase of 16254 tons, an increase of 6 consecutive weeks
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2104 contract 122456 lots, a daily decrease of 2978 lots, short positions of 148312 lots, a daily increase of 1347 lots, a net short position of 25856 lots, a daily increase of 4325 lots, more short increases, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On March 8, the upward movement of Shanghai aluminum 2104 was blocked
.
The progress of the $1.
9 trillion stimulus package in the United States, coupled with the Federal Reserve's statement that it is still not enough to stimulate the Fed to raise interest rates, and rising expectations of economic growth and inflation, have strengthened US Treasury yields and the US dollar
.
Domestic aluminum production profits remain high, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to increase, but the pace of production has slowed down, and under the carbon peak policy, Inner Mongolia will no longer approve new projects
this year.
Downstream processing enterprises have not fully resumed work, and domestic aluminum inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, but the overall is still at a low level, and the future market demand is expected to be good, which has some support
for aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream position of the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased and decreased more, paying attention to the resistance of the 17600 mark, and it is expected that the market will adjust
at a high level in the future.
