Shanghai aluminum volatility rises, the short-term trend is relatively strong

The executive meeting of the State Council released a signal of interest rate cut, saying that it is necessary to adhere to the implementation of prudent monetary policy and timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, accelerate the implementation of measures to reduce the level of real interest rates, and timely use policy tools
such as general RRR cuts and targeted RRR reductions.
The market's reaction to this news was relatively strong, and both the futures market and the stock market rose
sharply.

The two sides agreed to hold the 13th round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultations in Washington in early October, and the two sides will maintain close communication
before that.
The working layer will hold serious consultations in mid-September to make full preparations
for substantive progress in the high-level consultations.
Judging from the reaction of agricultural products, the market is more optimistic about the development of
Sino-US trade negotiations.

Recently, alumina continued the rebound trend, and the national average price of alumina on Thursday was 2560 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton
from last Thursday.
The price of alumina rose slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated upward, so the current profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is still relatively objective, and the willingness to add electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively strong
.

The current spread between electrolytic aluminum and alumina (1:2) is 9280 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan
from last Thursday's spread.
Investors can continue to hold positions
to buy alumina short electrolytic aluminum.
Individual alumina plants in Henan are expected to be stopped in rotation due to the failure to complete the transformation of ultra-low emission limits, involving a production capacity of about 600,000 tons
.

Electrolytic aluminum social stocks continued to decline during the week, totaling 961,000 tons on Thursday, down about 31,000 tons
from last Thursday.
At present, electrolytic aluminum has entered the stage of destocking, and the inventory of aluminum in the previous period is also declining
.
At present, the profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, so it is judged that the decline in electrolytic aluminum inventory during this period is actively destocked
.

According to reports, Xinjiang Xinfa plans to start power and resume production on September 30, after 600,000 tons of smelting capacity was shut down due to an explosion in a transformer
.
In addition, it is reported that part of the electrolytic aluminum production capacity shut down by Weiqiao, Shandong Province, will resume production
in September.
The resumption of production was slightly earlier than market expectations
.

At present, the trend of aluminum prices is relatively strong and at a relatively high level
.
But this is a relatively strong rebound, the high point of aluminum prices temporarily 14500 ~ 14800 yuan, and this round of rebound may be nearing the end, although the closing price hit a new high, but aluminum prices may be peaking
.
In addition, spot dealers can adopt the strategy
of buying alumina empty electrolytic aluminum.
Measured by 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum corresponding to 2 tons of alumina, the current price difference between the two is at a high level, there is a possibility of contraction, this strategy can continue to hold
.