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Yesterday night, the main 2301 contract of Shanghai copper opened at 65670 yuan / ton, and the night trading maintained a volatile upward
.
The center of gravity of the white plate price continues to move
upward.
The closing price was 66360 yuan / ton, up 920 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
Macro: Non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 263,000 after the November quarterly adjustment, ending a three-month downward trend
.
This value exceeded market expectations of 200,000 people, while the previous value was revised upwards to an increase of 284,000.
The US unemployment rate recorded 3.
7% in November, in line with expectations and the previous reading of 3.
70%, unchanged for the third consecutive month
.
The better-than-expected non-farm payrolls data is expected to make the December 13 rate hike full of uncertainty, and the dollar may rebound in the short term
.
On the supply side: the copper concentrate production of upstream mining enterprises ushered in a certain degree of sequential recovery in the third quarter, but the cumulative production as of the third quarter was basically the same
as last year.
According to IWCC statistics, copper mines were in a slight shortage from January to September
.
On November 24, Jiangxi Copper, China Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metal and Jinchuan Group and Freeport finalized the 2023 copper concentrate long single processing fee Benchmark of US$88/ton and 8.
8 cents/lb, the highest since
2017.
Domestic refined copper production increased at a high year-on-year rate
.
Imported copper sand, refined copper, copper products maintained a decline in October, and the overall domestic refined copper supply remained stable
.
Demand: According to SMM survey data, the operating rate of fine copper rod enterprises in November was 69.
72%, a slight decrease of 0.
05 percentage points from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 3.
18 percentage points
.
Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises is 72.
61%, the operating rate of medium-sized enterprises is 64.
47%, and the operating rate of small enterprises is 67.
18%.
(Research enterprises: 53, production capacity: 12.
87 million tons) Under the current situation of high copper prices, the downstream year-end replenishment is also slightly hesitant, and it is expected that the operating rate of the fine copper rod industry will continue to be at a low level
.
In terms of market: 1# electrolytic copper spot pair 12 contracts in the month reported at 20~120 yuan / ton, the average price premium 70 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton
from yesterday.
The transaction price of flat water copper is 66140~66300 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of premium copper is 66180~66360 yuan / ton
.
During the day, the spot premium continued to step on has fallen below 100 yuan / ton, although some discount prices appeared, but observing the market sentiment, there are not many
followers.
Near the end of the year, the aggravation of market prevention and control risks and shipment exchange have become the focus
of short-term contradictions.
At present, the domestic epidemic is gradually deregulating and the economic recovery is expected to continue to support copper prices in the short term, but the US dollar is also likely
to rebound in the short term.
Prices are expected to remain volatile, ranging from 64,000 to 68,000
.
