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On Wednesday, Shanghai copper was weak and volatile, and the intraday decline was obvious, the main monthly 2210 contract opened at 62920 yuan / ton, and the daily close was 62280 yuan / ton, down 880 yuan / ton, down 1.
39%.
The US CPI in August was higher than market expectations, which raised the market's expectations for the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike, making the market return to the trading logic of bearish interest rate hikes again, the US dollar index regained its high, and Shanghai copper fell under pressure, bidding farewell to strength
.
In terms of spot, on September 14, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 63310-63350 yuan / ton, down 660 yuan / ton; Premiums 160-200, down 270 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the spot premium fell back, the willingness of holders to exchange cash was strong, the receiver mainly purchased at the bottom, and the overall transaction situation was average, but the transaction volume increased
.
In terms of inventories, as of September 14, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks decreased by 625 tons, or 0.
60%, to 103025 tons; As of September 14, the previous copper futures warehouse receipt was 3,224 tons, unchanged
from the previous day.
On September 12, 2022, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 62,700 tons, down 18,000 tons from September 5 and 07,500 tons from September 8; Shanghai inventory was 50,200 tons, down 07,700 tons from September 5 and 03,100 tons from September 8; Guangdong stocks were 08,300 tons, down 07,900 tons from September 5 and 01,500 tons
from September 8.
On the supply side, Chilean copper mines are disturbed, and Indonesia has banned the export of raw copper; The upward trend of domestic TC prices and the upstream spot supply are loose; The decline in smelting prices has led to a decline in smelting profits, and the release of refined copper supply may slow down; The inflow of imported copper into the spot supply market, the recovery of domestic power cuts, electrolytic copper has basically returned to the market, overall, short-term supply pressure has eased, but the overall inventory is still at a historical low
.
On the demand side, due to the impact of high copper prices, demand is still weak, and real estate has not improved, the drag on copper consumption is obvious, although there is a guaranteed delivery policy, a package of economic stimulus measures, and in the field of infrastructure investment and new energy, coupled with better than market expectations, copper consumption has a boost effect, but consumption is still significantly weaker than the same period
of previous years.
Comprehensive analysis, the United States released inflation data greatly exceeded market expectations, the market was pessimistic about the pace of subsequent Fed interest rate hikes, the US index regained its high point, nonferrous metals generally declined, and copper weakened
.
Because the US CPI data in August was higher than expected, the trading logic of inflation Peak was repeated again, the recovery of risk sentiment was also interrupted, the non-ferrous sector was under pressure as a whole, copper prices fell in response, superimposed on the sharp plunge of domestic spot premiums, the support for copper prices weakened, and the market returned to the macro bearish surface again, copper prices bid farewell to strong, short-term macro, interest rate hikes and fundamental games, Shanghai copper tested the support
below.
