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On Thursday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and fell, with the highest 67630 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 66430 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 66460 yuan / ton, down 1.
99% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper opened low, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 9049 US dollars / ton, down 0.
76%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The U.
S.
Senate is abandoning plans to begin discussing President Joe Biden's $1.
9 trillion pandemic relief bill on Wednesday, increasing the likelihood that
the dollar change will be delayed until the end of the week.
(2) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss issues related to the U.
S.
economy at 1:15 a.
m.
Beijing time on Friday and is expected to remain conservative
.
(3) HIS Markit said that copper concentrate expected to arrive in China in March could increase by nearly 60%
month-on-month.
Spot analysis: On March 4, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 66800-67180 yuan / ton, with an average price of 66990 yuan / ton, down 835 yuan / ton
per day.
Wait-and-see sentiment is strong, consumption is still weak, and trading has stalemated
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 78,256 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 100 tons; On March 3, LME copper stocks stood at 74,100 tonnes, up 400 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2104 contract are 72695 lots, daily reduction of 389 lots, short positions of 76245 lots, daily minus 2264 lots, net short positions of 3550 lots, daily reduction of 1875 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2104 fell on March 4
.
The US $1.
9 trillion stimulus package may be hampered by delays, while the Fed chairman is about to discuss issues related to the US economy, and US Treasury yields have climbed recently, and the market fears that the Fed may change its dovish attitude, and the dollar index is rising
.
The upstream domestic copper processing fee TC continued to decline, resulting in high smelting costs, but the impact of the storm in Chilean ports gradually eased, and copper mine supply is expected to recover
.
At present, the performance of domestic demand is still weak, but although domestic inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, they are still significantly lower than the same period of previous years; With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March and April, downstream demand is still expected to improve, and there is limited
space below copper prices.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the Shanghai copper 2104 contract is large, focusing on the support of the 65000 mark, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.
