Shanghai copper is rising steadily, and the center of gravity is slowly moving upward

In terms of the external market, in the past week, London copper maintained range volatility, during the period of repeated high and fall, from the disk point of view, the initiative of long funds significantly enhanced than last week, successively broke through a number of integer barriers, but at noon on Friday, the dollar index soared to 96, base metals all sharply turned down, giving up gains
。 At the beginning of the week, London copper maintained range volatility, tested down 6064 US dollars / ton after the low rebound, effectively broke through the 6100 US dollars / ton integer mark, bulls in 6200 US dollars / ton repeated testing, Wednesday the US dollar once fell, copper price bull activity significantly increased, driving copper prices up 6300 US dollars / ton, touching 6308 US dollars / ton, after Friday the dollar soared to pressure copper prices, London copper lower, but the overall operating platform is still above 6100 US dollars / ton
.
The biggest gain of 4% during the week stabilized the 5-day moving average support
.

In terms of the market, the activity of trading during the week decreased day by day, and Monday, which was originally light in trading according to convention, became the peak day of intra-week trading, and then the trading decreased
day by day.
The spread narrows every other month, fluctuating within 100 yuan, and speculative profit margins are limited
.
At the beginning of the week, the holders raised prices, but the supply was small, imported copper was under pressure, downstream and traders inquiry and transaction atmosphere was positive, and then the price difference narrowed the next month, the holders continued to hold prices, and on Tuesday reached the highest point of the week's premium, reporting a rise of 50 yuan ~ 100 yuan / ton, so the market was afraid of high premium, and the transaction was suppressed
.
From mid-week to after the week, the transaction has been difficult to improve, the Shanghai-London ratio has been revised upward, the import window was once opened, and the loss narrowed to around 100 yuan after the week, the holder increased the willingness to ship, adjusted the price of shipment, and the proportion of traders to reduce the price of the transaction increased
.
After the week, the market rose, the downstream buying order gradually decreased, the price spread in the next month was also narrowing, the speculative space narrowed, the spot premium fell, the supply and demand sides had differences, it was difficult to find a low-priced source, the transaction was again a tug-of-war, and the transaction within the week first rose and then declined
.

On the whole, the suppression of US trade policy may trigger a further escalation of subsequent Sino-US trade, but the short-term supply elasticity is not high, the status quo of destocking has not been reversed, and short-term copper prices still tend to maintain a rebound structure
.
Demand data shows that copper pipes have entered the off-season, coupled with the concentration of new smelting capacity in China in the future, and Indian smelters seeking to resume production, so limiting the strength
of copper prices to rebound.
However, mine supply may not keep pace with smelting capacity, which in turn limits smelting pressure, so copper price movements may be complicated
from now to the first quarter of 2019.
In addition, the short-term market's macro expectations are often repeated, and copper prices are more entangled, but overall, the short-term is still dominated by the rebound structure
.