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    Home > Chemicals Industry > New Chemical Materials > Shanghai copper is running strongly, and it may fluctuate upward in the short term

    Shanghai copper is running strongly, and it may fluctuate upward in the short term

    • Last Update: 2022-12-26
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Today's Shanghai copper is running strongly, the intraday market is warm, the main month 2212 contract opened at 65900 yuan / ton, the daily close at 66580 yuan / ton, up 1250 yuan / ton, up 1.
    91%.

    The U.
    S.
    dollar index retreated for three consecutive days, buoying the upside in non-ferrous metal prices, supported by low inventories and a surge in premiums triggered by supply disruptions at major copper mines, which ended strongly and updated more than four-month
    highs.

    Shanghai copper

    In terms of spot, on November 9, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 66820-66860 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton; Discount 20-liter water 20, down 40 yuan / ton
    .
    In the spot market, the passive choice of the holder is not good to ship, the willingness to receive goods downstream is general, the receiver prepares the warehouse on demand, the trading atmosphere is general, and the overall trading volume is limited
    .

    In terms of inventories, as of November 9, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks decreased by 2,100 tons, or 2.
    53%, to 80,975 tons; As of November 9, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai copper futures in the previous period were 222558 tons, an increase of 1148 tons
    from the previous day.

    On the supply side, Chile's state-run Codelco's Chuquicamata smelter will undergo a major overhaul this month, which the company says will take longer than expected at 135 days instead of 90
    .
    At the same time, Codelco proposes to increase the supply premium for Chinese customers by 33.
    3%
    in 2023.
    In addition, domestic refined copper production was 900,000 tons, down slightly from the previous month and significantly lower than its expectation of 930,000 tons
    at the beginning of the month.
    This is due to the shortage of cold materials, the ongoing epidemic and power cuts in some regions, and the slowdown in the pace of new production capacity, and the release of production is significantly weaker than expected
    .
    Its output is still expected to be 900,000 tons in November, due to the shortage of cold materials and the fact that Daye's new production capacity is still unable to release output
    .
    As a result, the expectation of accelerated release of refined copper production in the fourth quarter has been disappointed, and spot tightness will continue
    .
    Copper inventories on the Stacked Library Global Exchange remain very tight, with the LME falling to its lowest level in more than seven months on Tuesday, down 43 percent
    over the past month.
    In China, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and bonded warehouses combined at 84,164 tonnes, not far from
    an all-time low of 72,159 tonnes hit in October.

    In terms of demand, although the operating rate of wire and cable decreased by 1.
    82 percentage points month-on-month, it increased by 0.
    05 percentage points year-on-year, and the overall operating rate maintained a good operating rate
    .
    And the operating rate of major large and medium-sized copper rod enterprises was about 67.
    53%, down 1.
    96 percentage points
    from last week.
    Coupled with the recent severe epidemic in Guangdong and other places, cable factories in the region have been disturbed, freight has been blocked, and arrivals are limited, and production has begun to be reduced within a week under financial pressure, which has a direct impact
    on copper consumption.
    Moreover, in November, the off-season began, the peak season ended, and the overall consumption weakened
    month-on-month.

    Copper prices rose sharply again, Shanghai copper continued to strengthen, strong continue, mainly boosted by the improvement of macro sentiment, released risk appetite, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, further pushed up the rally of non-ferrous metal prices
    .
    At the macro level, the Fed's mid-term elections have begun to attract investors' attention or bring more guidance
    to the market.
    Fundamentally, copper prices were boosted by the continuation of low inventories and the surge in premiums to a high of 33.
    3% as major copper mines faced production disruptions
    .
    However, the domestic demand side remained mediocre, weakening copper price gains
    .
    Spot trading performance is cautious and wait-and-see, downstream reflects a decrease in orders, a decline in willingness to receive goods, and traders do not ship well, resulting in a succession of downward spot premiums
    .
    However, the expected marginal improvement of domestic policies and the improvement of epidemic prevention policies have boosted market confidence, and credit delivery is expected to maintain strong growth
    in the fourth quarter.
    Overall, under limited macro pressure, the market once again focused on returning to the fundamentals of supply and demand, and copper prices may fluctuate
    upward in the short term after breaking through the previous range of 65,000 yuan / ton.

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