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Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper CU2210 rushed back down, closing at 62180 yuan / ton on Friday, a weekly increase of 0.
37%.
In terms of spot, the concentrated inflow of imported copper and the demand for cash exchange last week led to a decline
in spot premiums.
Looking forward to next week, in the last week before the holiday, buyers and sellers will start a game on the downstream "November" holiday before stockpiling, and the holders will exchange cash for light positions to reduce the risk of the holiday, which is expected to show a high and low premium situation
.
At the macro level, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 again at the September meeting, Powell reiterated that he expects continued rate hikes to be appropriate, Fed officials expect monetary policy to take a more hawkish route, and the dot plot also shows that there will be a sharp rate hike.
The Fed has lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2022 and beyond and raised its inflation forecasts in its economic forecasts
.
Under the further fermentation of the "stagflation" characteristics, the Fed's mid-year and long-term interest rate hikes are further hawkish, and it is expected that interest rates may continue to be raised by 125BP during the year, and the terminal interest rate range of this round of interest rate hikes will reach 4.
5%-4.
75%, while the Fed has greater tolerance for economic downturn, and the overall statement is further hawkish
.
In terms of spot, on September 26, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 61730-61770 yuan / ton, down 1440 yuan / ton; Liter 660-liter 700, up 10 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, consumption is better after the sharp reduction of copper prices, pre-holiday stock storage is concentrated, traders are strong in price sentiment, receivers are more enthusiastic about taking goods, and the overall trading atmosphere and trading volume are acceptable
.
On the supply side, London copper inventories have continued to increase, rising to near a one-month high, and registered warehouse receipts are rising simultaneously, the proportion of cancellations is still declining, and the inventory in the previous period has increased slightly, with limited
increases.
It can be seen that global copper explicit stocks have increased, and the support for copper prices has weakened
.
In terms of smelting, TC was higher month-on-month, and copper mine supply was not tight
.
In terms of demand, according to market research, the operating rate of fine copper rod enterprises increased by 3 percentage points to 72% last week, coupled with a slight decline in spot premium, a moderate increase in corporate procurement, and the peak season effect was reflected, and the downstream spot inventory was concentrated before the holiday; In addition, supported by infrastructure investment, new energy and real estate completion improvements, consumption slowly recovered
.
In terms of stocks, as of Friday, September 23, the total domestic electrolytic copper social stock fell by 15,500 tons from last week to 74,300 tons, and decreased by 10,200 tons
from last Friday.
Compared with Monday's change in inventory, inventories in all regions of the country have declined, and the total inventory is 29,200 tons lower than the 103,500 tons in the same period last year, and the difference between the two continues to narrow, mainly because downstream consumption has improved after the change of month, and the import clearance volume is not too large
.
On the whole, the deepening of macro suppression, the contradiction on the global supply side supports commodity prices, and in the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate in range, and it is difficult to have a trend market
.