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On the first trading day after the National Day, the price of Shanghai copper soared and fell, and the overall trend still maintained a range oscillation trend
.
On the macro front, although the Fed's interest rate decision in September did not clearly give a taper path, it has basically determined that it will begin to reduce the scale of
bond purchases within this year.
Due to the impact of "dual control" in China, the economic outlook may be greatly affected, but this does not rule out that the central bank will appropriately increase monetary easing in Q4
.
On the supply side, the price of imported ore TC has now risen back above $65/mt, which may also be some feedback
on the elimination of previous strike concerns in South American mining areas.
In terms of refinery profits, with the rebound of processing fees and the continuous surge in sulfuric acid prices (currently more than 1,000 yuan / ton), coupled with the fact that refinery maintenance has been basically completed in the third quarter, supply may increase
slightly in October under the condition of relatively considerable profits.
On the demand side, social electricity consumption data continued to increase in September, but due to the hidden danger of the possible energy crisis after that, both electricity consumption and grid investment may be affected
.
In the automotive sector, although the sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, the production of traditional vehicles was still greatly affected due to chip problems, and the outlook of the real estate and infrastructure sectors was negative, so the expectation of these adverse factors may gradually appear in October and the following four quarters, thus dragging down the demand contribution
to copper varieties.
Overall, October may not be good for copper prices, but under the influence of the energy crisis and the economic outlook or pessimistic situation, it is not ruled out that the central bank may ease monetary policy again to support the entire commodity sector, and the rise in costs caused by the energy crisis itself will also benefit metal varieties
, including copper.
