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On Thursday, Shanghai copper weak operation, intraday decline has narrowed, the main month 2210 contract opened at 62720 yuan / ton, the daily close at 62780 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan / ton, down 0.
25%, overseas interest rate hike expectations have not changed much, and inflation high fever does not subside, major major central banks hawkish attitude forecast continuation, Shanghai copper under pressure, but under the support of power curtailment disturbance and low inventory, copper prices fell little, the center of gravity moved
down slightly.
In terms of spot, data show that on August 25, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 63460-63500 yuan / ton, down 350 yuan / ton; Premiums 550-590, down 120 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the supply of goods continued to tighten, holders continued to hold prices, and the downstream was still afraid of heights, but the trading situation was better than the previous day, and the overall trading volume rebounded
.
In terms of inventories, as of August 25, copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) decreased by 1,150 tons, or 0.
93%, to 122125 tons; As of August 25, the previous copper futures warehouse receipt was 3,104 tons, down 75 tons
from the previous day.
As of August 25, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 50,700 tons, down 08,000 tons from the 18th and 02,300 tons from the 22nd; of which the Shanghai and Guangdong market inventories were urgent, and the Guangdong market inventory was close to the lowest inventory level in 2021, and the copper spot premium climbed sharply
.
On the supply side, according to market research, East China, represented by Jiangsu and Zhejiang, is currently affected by high temperature power cuts: the output of many copper rod factories in Zhejiang has plummeted by 50%, and the output of many copper rod factories in Jiangsu has also fallen by 30%.
However, due to the low season of the market and the weakness of downstream consumption, inventory can still meet the demand for downstream orders, and the impact of delivery is limited
.
In terms of demand, domestic downstream enterprises are not happy to buy, actual consumption is still standing on the sidelines, and fear of heights is obvious, and it is also suppressed by power restrictions, and in the short term, the weak pattern of consumption will continue
.
Comprehensive analysis, the macro atmosphere is cautious, weak global economic data exacerbates recession fears, while European and American central banks remain hawkish and bearish
.
However, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper only moved down slightly, and did not fall deeply, because low inventories and high premiums supported copper prices, coupled with the weakening of supply pressure due to domestic power curtailment, and spot trading was relatively tight in the short term, so under such a combination of factors, Shanghai copper short-term rise and fall dilemma, maintaining a strong shock judgment
.
