Shanghai copper volatility is strong, the market has turned back to the supply and demand side

In terms of spot, the average price of spot 1# copper in the Yangtze River on August 17 was 62460-62500 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton; Premiums 540-580, up 110 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the premium remained high, the holders showed prices under the tight supply of goods, the downstream bargain purchase, the overall trading was quiet, and the transaction volume declined
.

In terms of inventories, as of August 17, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks decreased by 600 tons, or 0.
46%, to 128875 tons; As of August 17, the previous copper futures warehouse receipt was 8,361 tons, down 1,011 tons
from the previous day.

On the supply side, the recent market is affected by rumors of storage and storage and supply caused by power shortages at home and abroad, especially the news that industrial enterprises in Sichuan and other places have given electricity to the people due to power shortages on Thursday, so that the next one to two weeks may face the risk of short-term shutdown, capacity release is limited, and the intensification of the epidemic in Guixi City will also affect smelting production, as well as Anhui Tongling smelter load reduction, short-term supply pressure weakened
.

In terms of demand, the demand side is also limited by the electricity policy and the impact of the epidemic, Guixi City is affected by the epidemic, the shipment of cars is not smooth, if the control continues, it will make the market sentiment suffered, how to maintain rigid consumption downstream, although the real estate has policy support, but still has not improved, continue to drag down the consumption
of copper.

Comprehensive analysis, macro pressure weakened, the market turned back to the supply and demand side, and supply and demand in the near future showed two weaknesses, mainly because of the high temperature and high pressure at home and abroad caused by the shortage of electricity, so that the cost of the supply side is high, refineries have significantly reduced production or stopped production, supply pressure has weakened in stages, and the demand side is also affected by this, the downstream only maintains just demand consumption, trading continues to contract, real estate although there is national favorable policy support, but still not better, so copper prices only slightly risen, limited increase
.
However, low inventories and high water have some support for copper prices, and consumption is still boosted by infrastructure
.
It is expected that the probability of a phased or large correction in copper prices is relatively limited
.