Shanghai copper's main force rushed to the high pullback, and short-term volatility is expected to be strong

Market focus: (1) Chinese real estate developer Evergrande Group is facing the expiration of the maturity of the bond interest due last Thursday, and the decline in the real estate boom outlook may drag down the demand performance
.
(2) According to Mysteel data, on September 27, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the Chinese market was 86,200 tons, down 24,100 tons from the 20th and 15,900 tons
from the 23rd.
(3) Community road blockages occurred in Chumbivilcas Province, Peru, 200 kilometers from Las Bambas, which continued to hinder transportation
.
Production at the mine is still continuing, but production has been affected
due to the impact of road jams on employees and supply logistics.

Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 69930-70250 yuan / ton, the average price is 70090 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 740 yuan / ton
.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal Network reported that the holders continued to ship goods at high prices, the receiving party bought at the low, the trading atmosphere was acceptable, and the overall transaction was better
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai was 13,156 tons, a daily decrease of 427 tons, and a decrease of 6 consecutive days; LME copper stocks were 223175 tonnes, down 3,000 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2111 contract 70341, +5010, short positions 78870, +8219, net positions -8529, -3209, long and short increased, net long decreased
.

Market judgment: the Fed may complete the tapering of bond purchases in the middle of next year, and hinted that it may raise interest rates at a faster pace than expected, the overall trend is hawkish, and the dollar index is rising; However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the performance of global economic growth, which is conducive to improving
risk sentiment.
Fundamentals, upstream copper concentrate processing fees continued to rise, raw material tightness continued to improve, but Peru and Kazakhstan were hindered by transportation, causing supply concerns
.
Domestic refinery maintenance is gradually completed, and production shows an increasing trend
.
However, Malaysia may raise the import standard of copper scrap, and the supply of copper scrap is tight, increasing the demand for refined copper substitution; Recently, domestic and foreign inventories have shown a downward trend, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly
.