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On Monday, the main 2108 contract of Shanghai copper rose in shock, with the highest 69460 yuan / ton and the lowest 68750 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 69200 yuan / ton, up 0.
32% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper rushed back down, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 9474.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
20%
per day.
Market focus: (1) At 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, the United States will release inflation data for June, and the market expects the June CPI to rise 0.
5% month-on-month and 4.
9%-5%
year-on-year.
(2) According to customs statistics, the total import and export value of China's trade in goods in the first half of 2021 was 18.
07 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.
1%
over the same period last year.
(3) On July 12, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the Chinese market was 187,000 tons, down 37,300 tons from last Monday and 30,100 tons
from last Thursday.
(4) According to the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 428,400 tons in June and 445,700 tons
in May.
Spot analysis: On July 13, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 69250-69500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 69375 yuan / ton, down 115 yuan / ton
daily.
The supply of circulating goods is tight, the sentiment of holders is not reduced, the downstream is rising and waiting, the receiving party maintains the purchase just needed, and the overall transaction declines
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in the day was 73166 tons, a daily decrease of 3121 tons, and a continuous decline of 20 days; LME copper stocks were 220575 tonnes, up 1,400 tonnes
per day.
Main position: Shanghai copper main 2108 contract top 20 long positions 73233, +1922, short positions 78283, +803, net positions -5050, +1119, long and short increased, net space decreased
.
Market research: the Fed maintains a dovish tone, the recent slowdown in the dollar index, pay attention to the upcoming US inflation data; China's June trade data performed brightly, which was positive for risk sentiment
.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories continued to grow, and copper ore processing fees TC steadily rebounded, indicating that the tension in copper mines improved; The dumping price is favorable but the quantity is limited, and the quantity of subsequent batches is still uncertain, which still needs to be paid attention to
.
Refinery overhauls have increased recently, production remains constrained, and inventories remain declining; However, the import window is almost open, the pressure of supply imports has increased, and the upward momentum of copper prices is limited
.
Technically, the mainstream position of the Shanghai copper 2108 contract increased and decreased more, focusing on the support at the 68000 position
.
