Shanghai Medium-Term Futures: Strong fuel consumption boosts oil prices

The futures price of the main contract of crude oil fluctuated to the upside
overnight.
U.
S.
crude inventories fell much more than expected, offsetting fears
of a global recession.

The US EIA crude oil inventories fell by the week to August 12, the largest since the week
of April 15, 2022.
On the supply side, OPEC+ decided to slightly increase production by 100,000 b/d in September, which was lower than market expectations, reflecting the lack of willingness of oil producers to
raise production significantly.
U.
S.
crude oil production recorded 12.
1 million b/d in the week ended Aug.
12, down 100,000 b/d
from last week.
Crude oil production maintained a low growth rate
.
On the demand side, rising crude oil and gasoline inventories during the summer peak season weighed on
sentiment.
In addition, under high inflationary pressure, the market's expectations for a sharp Fed interest rate hike remain, recession fears continue, and crude oil demand is under pressure
.

The average operating load of domestic major refineries in the week ended July 28 was 69.
33%, up 0.
24%
from the previous month.
In August, Yanshan Petrochemical 2# atmospheric pressure relief unit and Hohhot Petrochemical will still be under maintenance, and Dalian Xitai Refinery, Shanghai Petrochemical, Qingyang Petrochemical, Yumen Petrochemical and North China Petrochemical are expected to end their maintenance, and there are no new refineries for maintenance, and the average operating load is expected to continue to rise
.
The average operating load of the Shandong Dilian Constant Pressure Relief Unit in the week ended August 10 was 64.
8%, down 0.
62%
from the previous week.
In the short term, there is no planned maintenance of the refinery, but it is not ruled out that other factors may cause the refinery to reduce the burden
.

It is expected that Shandong Georefinery will reduce the operating load or stabilize the middle and lower load
.
Overall, the current changes in the demand for crude oil market are the main factors affecting the market mentality, but due to the continued tight supply, it is operationally recommended to pay close attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's interest rate hike while focusing on swing trading
.