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On Friday, Shanghai rubber continued to fluctuate slightly, the main contract opened at 14140 yuan / ton, settled at 13955 yuan / ton, the highest price was 14280 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 13825 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 13955 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
The spot quotation was adjusted with the market, and it was reduced by about
150 yuan / ton.
The average price of domestic natural rubber (Standard 1) in China's East China market on the 25th was 13170 yuan / ton, down about 162 yuan / ton from the previous trading day
.
On the supply side, as Southeast Asian production areas enter a period of production reduction, natural rubber supply is about to be at the lowest point of the year, and it is expected that this year's production will be generally lower than last year: Thailand, for example, its recent reports show that Thailand's total production in the first quarter of 2022 will be 6.
35% lower than in 2021, and it is expected that February and March will be affected by the shutdown period and defoliation disease, and the expected production will decrease by about 387,000 tons and 142,000 tons
respectively.
At present, China is still in the period of suspension of cutting, it is reported that the weather in Yunnan is relatively good recently, and it is expected that the cutting will be earlier than last year
.
In terms of demand, tire companies started to pick up after the year, and the demand for semi-steel tires is better than that of all-steel tires, it is reported that this year's manufacturers resumed work earlier, and their procurement demand for tianjiao gradually recovered
.
In terms of inventory, Qingdao's inventory continued to increase, data shows that as of February 20, the total inventory of natural rubber bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 369,100 tons, an increase of 5.
52% month-on-month, and stable accumulation; And according to market news, the recent accumulation range of natural rubber warehouse receipt inventory and natural rubber spot inventory has narrowed
.
As tire companies' production picks up, their procurement demand for natural rubber will continue to pick up, but it will take time for large-scale improvement; The growth rate of spot inventories has slowed down, and under the background of continued to reduce supply pressure, the natural rubber market has a strong
upward momentum in the medium term.
The market generally expects that natural rubber has been at a stage low, the possibility of a big fall is small, and the short-term small range fluctuation trend is expected to continue
.
