Shanghai rubber oscillation fell back to maintain a near-weak, far-strong structure

The opening price of the Nippon 1701 contract is 156 yen/kg, the highest price is 157.
6 yen/kg, the lowest price is 151.
3 yen/kg, and the closing price is 153.
4 yen/kg; The trading volume was 5121 lots, and the position volume was 12838 lots
.

Domestic sales area market
.
Shanghai area 14 years state-owned full latex 10150 (-250); 14 years Yunnan state-owned whole milk 10150 (-350) in Shandong; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free price in Hengshui area is 10200 (-100) yuan / ton, and the 15-year private whole milk tax-free quotation is 10400 yuan / ton (-100) yuan / ton; Yunnan 16 years private full latex quotation of 10700 (-100) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 800 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 310340 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 50 tons, Yunnan decreased by 200 tons, Shandong decreased by 200 tons, Tianjin decreased by 270 tons, and Hainan decreased by 80 tons
.

The main contract of Shanghai rubber 1701 fell back yesterday
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line returned to near the 40-day moving average, the technical indicator MACD green column continued, and the moving average system flattened; On the daily chart, the K line closed above the 60-day moving average, and the MACD green column narrowed
.
Lower support at 12520
.
The volume and position are amplified
.
Overall, the technical picture is weak
.

Holdings of the main contract of Shanghai rubber (1701): the top 20 members have long positions of 56682 (-105), short positions of 75833 (+1482), and net short positions of 19151
.

Comprehensive analysis, the Shanghai rubber shock fell back on Tuesday, and the main contract was dragged down by the 09 contract
.
For the 09 contract, we still maintain our previous view
.
Due to weather and other reasons, the new rubber storage is not much to bring support to the 01 contract, 09-01 spread closed at 2310 as of the night close, it is not recommended to reverse hedging to do spread repair
for the time being.
We expect 09 to likely continue to weaken
in mid-to-late August.
In the medium and long term, the view
of weak volatility is maintained.

It is recommended that investors operate
between 12500-13000 on the 01 contract.
Before the delivery of the 09 contract, Shanghai Rubber may maintain a contract structure
of near weak and far strong.