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After Shanghai rubber prices hit a new low for the year last week, collective commodities rebounded
sharply on Friday night.
At present, the main contract in September is gradually changing months, and the difference between it and the non-standard spot price has changed from low premium to flat water to the current discount, which has occurred in 19 years, and the final discount is about 500 delivered
.
At present, the situation of rubber itself is similar to that of 19 years, but the macro environment is more
worrying.
On the macro front, in early to mid-July, the international crude oil trend showed a W shape, and the current price is comparable
to the price at the beginning of this month.
Among them, on the 20th, the price of international crude oil futures continued to rise
.
The main contract of U.
S.
WTI crude oil futures settled at $99.
88 per barrel, down $0.
86 or 0.
9%; The main contract for Lunt crude futures settled at $106.
92 a barrel, down $0.
43 or 0.
4%.
Previously, affected by the weakening of the macro dollar, oil prices rose for three consecutive days, and the benefits were gradually digested
by the market.
In terms of supply, the production of global production areas continues to increase rapidly, Southeast Asian production areas in Thailand and Vietnam production continue to increase, with rainfall in southern Thailand, but the total amount increases steadily, glue prices weaken, China's production area in Yunnan production area production steadily increased, Hainan production area due to late cutting, the current overall output is definitely reduced compared with previous years, from the seasonal law of global production, it is expected to reach the highest peak in August
.
In terms of inventory, the current import volume is not large, and domestic stocks have deteriorated
slightly.
On the demand side, affected by high temperature weather, the operating rate of tire companies has generally declined, and statistics show that the current operating rate of tire factories is about five to seven percent
.
Data show that as of July 15, the operating load of all steel tires of Shandong Tire Company was 58.
94%, an increase of 1.
64% from last week, and a decrease of 0.
91% over the same period; The starting load of semi-steel tires was 65.
23%, up 1.
57 percentage points from last week and 8.
85%
in the same period.
The future market predicts that the recent rainfall in the production area will not prevent the supply pressure of the global natural rubber seasonal rubber production season, coupled with the latest year-on-year increase in the import data of natural rubber and the continued high inventory of finished tires, the weak demand of downstream manufacturers will continue
.
Although the strict control of public health events is conducive to economic development and frequent policies such as automobile consumption have a certain boost to rubber demand, the imbalance of natural rubber spot supply and demand has led to continuous pressure on the future market of Tianjiao, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will be difficult to improve in the third quarter, and the short-term 12000 mark is likely to continue to fluctuate
.