Shanghai rubber volatility intensifies short-term futures price rebound space is limited

News: 1.
China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber from January to July fell by 7.
1%
year-on-year.
2.
In June 2019, the output of Malaysian tianjiao decreased
year-on-month.
3.
Thailand pre-formulated rubber price guarantee plan
.

Market quotation: the quotation of 17-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market is 10500 (+0) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 10950 (+0) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 12900 (+0) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 10650 (+0) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan state-owned rubber processing plant remained stable at 9500 yuan / ton / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 39.
1 (+0) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 40.
99 (+0.
59) baht/kg; field glue 38.
5 (+0.
5) baht/kg; Cup glue 32 (+0.
5) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10600 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10700 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: warehouse receipt 413990 tons, +400 tons
.
Main positions: Top 20 long positions 61570, +2175, short positions 89577, +3906
.
Long and short increase at the same time, headroom increases
.

Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, and the supply is gradually increasing
.
Although stocks outside the bonded zone have continued to decline recently, Thailand's exports of Chinese standard rubber increased sharply in June, and inventories will still recover
as imported sources continue to arrive at Hong Kong.
On the demand side, domestic heavy-duty truck sales in July fell sharply again month-on-month, coupled with the current domestic tire consumption gradually entering the off-season, the operating rate of domestic tire factories continued to decline, and the demand side was not optimistic
.
However, the current price has fallen into the cost range, and the all-latex sticker mixed rubber may make the futures price decline space limited
.
From a technical point of view, the RU2001 contract has intensified intraday volatility, the upper pressure is on the 11700 line, and the short-term price rebound space is limited, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling short at the high and pay attention to risk control
.