Short-term demand recovery Shanghai aluminum will mainly recover moderately

In terms of macro, after market hours on Wednesday, Li Keqiang stressed at the national TV and telephone conference on stabilizing the economic market: solidly promote the implementation of various policies to stabilize the economy, ensure that market entities ensure employment and people's livelihood, and ensure that the economy operates in a reasonable range
.
The meeting strengthened the bulls' confidence to a certain extent, but in the current context, we can see that industrial products are increasingly weak in response to policy boosts, and whether the macro atmosphere can turn depends on whether the real economy actually improves
.
At the same time, the recent weakening of the RMB against the US dollar has also put nonferrous prices under certain pressure
.

From a fundamental point of view, downstream demand has rebounded slightly, boosting aluminum prices to return to more than 20,000, but supply pressure is gradually amplified and expected to be stronger, resulting in greater
upward pressure.
According to SMM data, this week's inventory continued to be destocked, Monday aluminum ingot stocks fell 24,000 tons from last Thursday to 941,000 tons of supply, aluminum rods destocked 06,600 tons to 129,800 tons
.

On the supply side, the scope of impact of the accident in Yunnan has not been further expanded, the overall resumption of production of aluminum enterprises, the rhythm of new investment is still ongoing, Yunnan has recently released the power load to support the production of electrolytic aluminum, and the rapid release of production capacity is not expected
.

On the whole, short-term demand recovery, superimposed on the policy side blowing warm wind, aluminum prices will rise moderately, but in the long run, the epidemic disrupted the rhythm of the peak season, the second and third quarters of supply and demand are difficult to show a big contradiction, the second half of the year supply is strong, the overall pressure
.
Strategically, it is expected to run in the range 20000-21500 this week, with range operations as the mainstay
.