Due to the strong fundamentals, the main force of Shanghai copper opened an over-bearish rebound, and the price returned to the range of 55,000-57,000 yuan / ton
.
Coupled with the macro bearish sentiment has eased, the price once touched 59,000 yuan / ton
this week.
On the macro front, the preliminary US manufacturing PMI in July fell below the 50-rise line, falling to 49.
9 from 50.
2 in June, while the Eurozone preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI in July also fell to 49.
6
from 52.
1 in June.
As the manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States continues to decline, the market is bearish on the global economic outlook, so the market is mainly
trading 75BP for this week's Fed interest rate meeting.
On the supply side, supply-side disruptions continued last week, and Codelco suspended the construction
of Chuquicamata underground mine project and Rajo Inca project due to two recent safety incidents.
In addition, community negotiations in Las Bambas are ongoing, and community feedback that negotiations are not going well
.
TC edged down $0.
84/mt to $71.
49/mt
.
The refinery has gradually completed maintenance, the profit has maintained a certain level, and the supply at the smelting end is relatively abundant
.
In terms of import and export, when copper prices fell rapidly, domestic copper prices took the opportunity to repair the ratio, and the window still opened
from time to time.
On the demand side, affected by the rebound in copper prices, merchants hold the mentality of inventory to rise, and the willingness to ship has fallen again, and the overall market circulation source has been at a low level
recently.
Downstream waste enterprises are also tight in raw material inventories at this stage, and the market demand for recycled copper continues to decline
.
In the long run, although infrastructure has certain policy stimulus, due to the off-season period, there is no significant recovery, or wait until the fourth quarter to make efforts
.
Demand in the new energy sector is expected, and automobile production and sales rebounded
in June.
The real estate sector is still under pressure, and home appliance consumption has not improved
.
On the whole, global explicit inventories fell slightly month-on-month, and the low inventory situation remained
.
And the willingness to ship upstream is not high, and the basic price has some support
.
The recent price trend, need to pay attention to the July interest rate decision announced by the Federal Reserve at 2 a.
m.
on the 28th, if the rate hike is in line with expectations, the macro shortfall state is further reflected, and the copper price is driven by a certain valuation repair
.
Macro events in August affected the window period, and price dominance may return to fundamentals
.
It is expected that the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper will run in the range of 57,000-62,000 yuan / ton in the short term
.
