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Trade Service
On Friday, the internal Shanghai aluminum 2111 contract closed at 22,755 yuan, up 190 yuan
for the week.
Last week, LME aluminum showed a volatile upward trend
.
After the National Day, Shanghai aluminum rose again after opening high, but because the actual transaction situation in the spot market was relatively sluggish, Shanghai aluminum continued to fall, and the spot transaction in East China was concentrated at 22610 yuan to 22640 yuan
.
The scope of impact of power rationing has expanded, and supply and demand are in a weak pattern
.
From late August to early September, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Yunnan successively introduced policies to reduce electrolytic aluminum production, and in mid-September, Guangxi further increased the weight, and in mid-to-late September, Guizhou issued an orderly power rationing policy to encourage electrolytic aluminum enterprises to stagger peak production, and Qinghai and Ningxia limited production
in October.
The State Council does not set an increase in the proportion of electricity prices traded in high-energy-consuming industries, and Inner Mongolia has begun to raise the electricity prices of high-energy-consuming industries, and it is expected that the electricity prices of other provinces and cities will gradually increase in the future
.
On the demand side, the sharp rise in aluminum prices has inhibited some downstream replenishment, while power cuts have further aggravated the decline in demand, and the operating rate of the aluminum industry has declined significantly
.
At present, the State Council has proposed to ban one-size-fits-all power cuts, and it is expected that downstream power cuts will turn around and aluminum demand will recover
.
In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 862,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons from before the holiday, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory has increased for five consecutive weeks and regained the 800,000-ton mark
.
Last week's aluminum inventory totaled 234,000 tons, an increase of 04,000 tons
from last week.
Overall, inventories are still low, but are gradually recovering
.
In terms of news, the fourth round of storage dumping by the State Reserve Bureau has been determined, and it is planned to throw 70,000 tons of aluminum ingots in early October, and the reserve dumping has not exceeded market expectations
.
At present, the reserve dumping of the State Reserve Bureau is gradually carried out, because the amount of reserves has not changed much each time, resulting in a significant decline in the
market's attention to the dumping of reserves.
Due to the ceiling of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the impact of power restriction measures, the operation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity has always been affected, and the actual output has declined for several months, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to be tight
.
Recently, the national power restriction has expanded again, and aluminum prices have been affected by this, and the high level has fluctuated
.
However, power rationing not only affects supply, but also has a greater impact on domestic consumer demand, and the aluminum market as a whole is in a
weak pattern of supply and demand.
In anticipation of weakening macro surfaces, aluminum prices are in the peak stage
.
