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Recently, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continues to deteriorate, in addition to the consumption in the South China market to maintain a certain degree of resilience, the recent strong demand for aluminum alloy ingots in the southwest region to Xinjiang aluminum ingots absorption is the main reason, but in the first half of 2020 southwest region related aluminum ingot new production capacity after the production of Xinjiang aluminum ingots will re-enter the social inventory, so the follow-up supply pressure will still be prominent, as far as December is concerned, supply and demand are in a state of double weakness, and the short-term shock pattern of aluminum prices is eager to continue
.
Basis situation: Shanghai A00 aluminum 13940 yuan / ton, compared with 2001 liter water 70 yuan / ton
.
Spot merchants reported a premium of 80 yuan / ton, last week premium 80 yuan / ton, currently at a high level in the same period of nearly 10 years, social inventory continues to decline to support spot premium, but considering the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and demand has not reversed, the center of gravity at the end of the year is expected to come under pressure
.
LME aluminum (0-3) reported a premium of $22/ton, compared with $12/ton last week, at a high level in the same period in nearly 10 years, but may fall
back in mid-to-early December.
The price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai was minus 30 yuan / ton, minus 60 yuan / ton last week, at the central axis level of the same period in the past 10 years, and narrowed slightly in the past four weeks, but the actual market demand is still weak
overall.
Inventory: the last warehouse receipt was 67,033 tons, down about 14% from last week, after the destocking trend since mid-April 2018, and is currently at a low level in the 10-year warehouse receipt range, and the market still generally expects that production is still increasing before January, so exchange inventory may still recover steadily after December; Aluminum inventories in the previous period of this week decreased by 24,963 tons from last week to 245824 tons
.
The total inventory of aluminum ingots in 7 cities in China was 755,000 tons, down 44,000 tons from last week, still continuing the previous destocking state, but the social inventory at the end of the year may gradually stabilize; the social inventory of aluminum rods was about 77,000 tons, down about 13% from last week, at the low level of the same period in nearly three years
.
LME inventories were 1271650 tonnes, up about 8% from last week, at their lowest level since 2008, and have remained in a narrow range
since July.
The theoretical production profit margin of electrolytic aluminum continued to stabilize in mid-October, and is currently at a high level in the past ten years, and from a seasonal point of view, it fell
back in early December.
The theoretical export profit of aluminum has basically maintained a narrow range in the third quarter, at the central axis level of the same period in the past four years, and the export growth at the end of the year is expected to slow down but it is not expected to have a cliff
.
Main funds: net long state, net long accounted for 1.
09%, held steady last week, this week long and short positions are slightly reduced
.
