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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum 2203 closed at 21700, up 210, LME aluminum closed at 3115, up 62; On the macro front, the central bank's LPR rate was 3.
7% in 1-year, down 10 basis points; More than 5 years was 4.
60%, down 5 basis points
.
This is the first downward revision
of the 5-year LPR in 21 months.
Money markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a time, which would be the biggest move since 2020; US President Joe Biden: It is now necessary for the Fed to properly calibrate supportive policy in order to fight inflation
.
ECB December monetary policy meeting minutes: Inflation cannot be ruled out for a longer period of time, concern
about premature tightening.
In terms of fundamentals, SMM inventory on the 20th reported 726,000 tons, an increase of 02,000 tons from last Thursday; in the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 199,000 tons, an increase of 37,500 tons from last Thursday, aluminum rod accelerated accumulation, higher than the same period, aluminum ingot inventory is still slightly degraded, lower than the same period in history, off-season accumulation has begun; December unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports were 563,000 tons, an increase of 53,700 tons month-on-month, and the cumulative export of the whole year was 5.
619 million tons, an increase of 15.
7% year-on-year.
In December, exports were 243,700 tons, down about 154,000 tons month-on-month, primary aluminum imports were 82,300 tons, down 147,000 tons, and cumulative imports were 1,579,700 tons, an increase of 48.
46%
year-on-year.
European natural gas prices have risen sharply, Hydro, Alcoa and other European aluminum plants have begun to reduce production, France Dunkirk aluminum plant due to the electricity price does not reduce the release of continued production reduction signals, production reduction expectations still exist, production reduction makes the European spot aluminum premium soar.
The pressure of power rationing in Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia has eased, and the power rationing capacity has partially resumed production
.
Shandong alumina due to the Winter Olympics production restrictions, alumina supply shortage, price rapid rise, market expectations on electrolytic aluminum production has little
impact.
Short-term spot market supply and demand is tight, spot premium is still strong, inventory change level is low, coupled with the recent domestic easing policy support, the price trend is strong, but near the Spring Festival, downstream demand stops, inventory has entered the accumulation stage, spot face is expected to weaken, chase more attention to risks; In the medium and long term, due to the overall low level of domestic and foreign inventories, overseas production reductions, and the expectation of the peak season in the first half of the year, it is difficult for domestic production to make up for the gap, and the medium and long-term trend support is significant
.
