Supply-side production capacity further released to limit the upward momentum of aluminum prices

Macro: On November 15, China, Japan and South Korea and other 15 countries signed RCEP, the regional economic cooperation agreement covers 1/3 of the world's population, the conclusion of RCEP will promote regional economic integration and coordinated development, promote regional trade freedom and global economic and trade cooperation in the context of the global economic and trade environment, China's a number of macroeconomic data recently released, strong performance will promote aluminum prices to continue to rise
.
The Pfizer vaccine has applied for emergency authorization in the United States, and the first batch of vaccines is expected to be released
on the US market in mid-December.

Supply side: supply-side smelter profits remain high, industry capacity will be further released in December, alumina industry operating rate continues to rise, and the supply side is weak
in the fourth quarter.
Demand side: Strong terminal demand for domestic buildings, automobiles and photovoltaics
.

In terms of stocks: LME stocks were dematerialized by 5,200 tons to 1,333,300 tons last day, 6,041 tons to 214,300 tons last week, and 301 tons to 83,346 tons
under the previous warehouse receipt.
Social inventory According to the data on December 10, compared with the statistics on December 07, it continued to decline by 01,000 tons, to 614,000 tons, and the fundamentals are overall, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, and the price still forms a certain support
.

Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices still maintain a low level around 2300 yuan, the current electrolytic aluminum industry profits rose slightly, from a historical point of view, production profits are still in a high position, and high profits have continued for a long time
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in November, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.

In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of aluminum enterprise investment and production, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, the new production capacity in December further released to form a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.