Support below aluminum prices still exists to maintain high volatility in the short term

In terms of news, under the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, natural gas prices have risen recently, European energy prices are at a high level, and local concerns about electrolytic aluminum production reduction continue to heat up
.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased slightly, but the output in the first quarter was difficult to exceed the level of the same period last year, and the transportation of aluminum ingots in some areas was hindered
under the influence of the epidemic.

In terms of consumption, downstream consumption has just needed a seasonal slow recovery, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates, strips and foils has rebounded, but the current outbreak of the epidemic in various places may suppress demand
.

In terms of inventory, social treasury data shows that inventory has accumulated slightly, mainly due to poor transportation caused by the epidemic in many places
.
On March 28, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
052 million tons, 13,000 tons
more than last Thursday.
On March 28, LME aluminum stocks fell by 7,075 tons from the previous session to 671,000 tons
.

In terms of price, the threat of energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the progress of domestic electrolytic aluminum production and the recovery of downstream demand, the recent development of the epidemic may interfere with transportation and procurement, but the low level of inventory at home and abroad supports the price, and it is recommended to treat it unilaterally in the short term
.