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Since January, copper prices have shown a rebound trend after experiencing a narrow range, and the recent rebound in copper prices is mainly supported
by a warming macro atmosphere and low inventories.
In early January, the number of new crown diagnoses in the United States climbed, the omicron virus brought greater uncertainty to the epidemic, in addition, most Fed officials made hawkish remarks, under strong inflationary pressure, the market's expectations of its interest rate hike accelerated, supporting the dollar index to rise, copper prices under pressure
.
Entering this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks on monetary policy at the hearing were more moderate than before, calming market sentiment, and the December inflation data did not exceed expectations, the dollar responded to the downside, coupled with the LME and the continuous destocking of copper inventories in the previous period, low inventories increased the elasticity of copper prices, internal and external copper prices rose together, and the main contract of Shanghai copper once exceeded 72,000 yuan / ton
.
In terms of spot, under the seasonal demand off-season, supply and demand weakened, and the spot premium narrowed compared with the previous period, once turned to discount, but this week, supported by low inventory, spot prices performed strongly, expanding compared with futures premium
.
As of January 13, 2022, the average price of #1 electrolytic copper was 72,200 yuan/ton, a premium of 760 yuan/ton
compared with futures.
Under the background of downstream pre-holiday backup loans and low inventory, the fundamentals are still supported, but the expectation of supply and demand reduction remains unchanged, and under the off-season of demand after the Spring Festival, the accumulation is expected to be strong, and the support may
weaken.
The rebound of copper prices is difficult to constitute a trend market, but under the support of pre-holiday spot stocks and low inventory, the room for decline is also limited, and the range shock view is still maintained in the short term to observe when the inventory inflection point appears
.
