Suppressed by the empty atmosphere, rubber continued to fluctuate and weakened the market

On the macro front, the world has entered a recession, and market expectations are pessimistic
.
Under overseas stagflation, the Fed has raised interest rates one after another, and it is expected that there will still be a small interest rate
hike in the near future.
The domestic economy is set to enter a recession, and the latest PMI data released yesterday showed that the manufacturing PMI in August was 49.
4%, still below the boom and bust line
.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the domestic economy was greatly affected in the first half of the year, and after the phased improvement in June and July after the epidemic was controlled in stages, the overall economy showed a weak recovery in August
.
Therefore, it is not clear whether the seasonal peak season starting in September can reach the level of previous years, and the overall commodity atmosphere is empty due to the macro impact, and the downside risk of rubber prices still exists
.

On the supply side, the world is currently in the seasonal peak season of rubber, and the overall supply is loose
.
Supply in major producing areas in Southeast Asia has been increasing, and the purchase price of raw materials in Thailand has been weakening, which has suppressed market confidence
.
The main domestic rubber producing areas began to gradually increase in May, and have reached the peak production level, and it is expected that there will still be a large supply of glue
before the cutting period in November.
Therefore, in the medium term, the pressure on the supply of raw materials will continue unabated
.
Then there is the problem
of weak demand, which has been repeated this year.
In the first half of this year, the epidemic broke out in many points in China, and due to the impact of epidemic prevention measures, terminal consumption was sluggish, and the growth rate of domestic retail sales of consumer goods declined
significantly.

Since June, the epidemic has finally improved, demand is in a weak recovery state, demand margin recovery in July and August, car sales gradually increased, showing a year-on-year growth, month-on-month decline
.
According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, automobile sales in August were 2.
295 million units, down 5.
2% month-on-month and up 27.
2% year-on-year.
Vehicle sales from January to August 2022 were 16.
772 million units, up 1.
2%
y/y.

Specific to the sub-category, the family passenger car market continued to recover, while the sales of heavy trucks remained weak
.
In terms of downstream tires, June coincided with the seasonal off-season in the middle of the year, and downstream tire demand remained weak
.
Although the finished product inventory of the tire factory is seasonally high, the operating rate is not too bad, basically in the middle of the seasonal range, mainly because the tire export volume from June to August increased significantly, which greatly alleviated the downstream tire factory's "high inventory, low start" situation
.
According to Longzhong caliber statistics, the operating rate of semi-steel tires this week was 65.
86%, +7.
81% year-on-year, and the operating rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 1.
91%
year-on-year.

On the whole, the trend market drive of the rubber market is still not obvious, from the perspective of supply and demand, the overall market is weak, from the macro empty atmosphere to suppress the rubber price, it is expected that the rubber price will remain weak in the near future
.
It mainly depends on the performance of the peak consumption season in autumn, whether it can bring strong driving and macro-level disturbances
.