The aggregate MDI market rebounds hopelessly

Entering November, the domestic aggregate MDI market stabilized and rebounded after a rapid decline, but the gains were difficult to maintain, and the long and short sides were in a stalemate

Looking at the market outlook, the tightening of supply caused by manufacturers' overhaul is favorable to dissipate, and the demand is in the off-season, the aggregate MDI market may continue to consolidate

Supply side: limited maintenance boost

According to Pan Jinsong, a professor-level senior engineer at the Shandong Institute of Industry and Information Technology, entering November, as manufacturers lowered their ex-factory prices, the aggregate MDI market started a rapid decline mode.

From the perspective of plant operation, the overall operating rate of aggregate MDI currently reaches 83%

Among the foreign MDI installations, most of the other installations are in normal operation except for the MDI installation of Hungarian Prostec Chemical Company's announcement of force majeure shutdown on November 17, and the maintenance of the Saudi Dow and South Korean BASF installations

For the market outlook, Pan Jinsong analyzed that the benefits of maintenance have been exhausted by the market, and the trading atmosphere has become weaker

Raw material end: the cost of accelerating decline

After the polymer MDI raw material pure benzene rose to a high of 8,800 yuan in October, as the downstream curtailment market began to weaken sharply, the decline accelerated in November.

　　At present, petroleum benzene is affected by the sharp fall in international crude oil, coupled with a significant increase in inventories, the market is short-term bearish, and bearish sentiment is heating up

　　In addition, Dalian Fujia's pure benzene plant restarted, Shouguang Luqing's new plant has produced qualified products, and the loss of pure benzene overhaul has been reduced, adding to the bearish atmosphere in the market

　　"The external market of crude oil and pure benzene has fallen sharply behind, the external market lacks support, coupled with the increase in port inventory, downstream purchase enthusiasm is not high

　　Demand side: limited downstream buying

　　In the early stage, due to factors such as "dual control" of energy consumption, power cuts and higher international logistics costs, both ends of the manufacturing industry's supply and demand slowed down

　　Judging from the current situation, chip supply has eased slightly, but it still cannot meet the needs of automobile production.

　　Statistics show that from January to October, China's automobile production and sales volume reached 20.

　　From the downstream point of view of polymeric MDI, the domestic rigid foam polyether market has entered a fast-declining channel, following the broad downward adjustment of the raw material propylene oxide

　　In addition, after entering November, as the weather turned cooler, building insulation construction in some areas was restricted, and the downstream demand for hard foam was further reduced