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On Friday, Lun aluminum fell from the high point of nearly three months, and the Shanghai aluminum shock was weak
.
Last week, the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory was slightly accumulated
.
At present, the level of aluminum inventory and basis is neutral, under the expectation of domestic macro easing and tight supply and demand in the future market, the medium-term shock trend of Shanghai aluminum has not changed, short-term consumption weakening prices have resistance at the previous high, temporarily treated with shocks, and the support level is temporarily
around 20,900 yuan.
The current aluminum price has strong support below, and the overall price will remain high a few years ago
.
Domestically, the seasonal weakening of downstream demand near the Spring Festival is already a reality that can be seen, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots began to accumulate this week, but it is expected that the cumulative pressure in January and February is not large year-on-year, and because it is a seasonal accumulation, we believe that the pressure on the disk is not large
.
The haze of overseas energy crisis has always existed, the recent European natural gas prices are still at a high level, and European aluminum plants are still facing strong cost pressure
.
And due to the strong resilience of the production reduction of some European aluminum enterprises in the early stage and the strong demand toughness, the LME aluminum ingot inventory continues to be destocked, and has now fallen to less than 900,000 tons, giving strong support
to Lun Aluminum.
Domestic macro policies set steady and progressive, the recovery of real estate and infrastructure demand is worth looking forward to, while the demand for new energy sectors is expected to grow at a high rate, and aluminum demand may provide an upward drive
after the year.
To sum up, although the domestic festival itself weakened before and after the Spring Festival, the lower branch is stronger, and it is expected to maintain a high level of volatility, and the possibility of a deep fall is small
.
