The bottom range of Shanghai aluminum has risen steadily, and it has repeatedly oscillated in the short and medium term

Guangzhou's sudden announcement of liberalization + the Fed's dovish speech will cause aluminum prices to rush higher to break through the front important pressure level of 19200, and the upper pressure will adjust to 19500
after the breakout.
It should be noted that inventories may begin to accumulate gradually after entering December, and it is necessary to pay attention to the phased pressure
on aluminum prices brought by aluminum ingots to the warehouse after logistics recovery.

Affected by the tight energy supply in the fourth quarter, European aluminum smelters may reduce production by 300,000-500,000 tons, and it is expected to reduce production by 1.
30-1.
5 million tons
throughout the year.
In the third quarter, Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum production was affected by the low water level during the dry period and the limitation of hydroelectric power generation, or there was a reduction of
about 500,000 tons.
If there is extreme cold weather in autumn and winter, the contradiction between power supply and demand is prominent again, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum plants will fall or fall again, and the impact on aluminum price support may appear again
.
At the downstream primary processing end, the operating rate of aluminum cable factories is stable, benefiting from the steady growth of investment in the power grid, increasing the purchase of aluminum raw materials, and the current aluminum inventory is in a state
of decomposition.

At present, the corresponding cost range of electrolytic aluminum plants with different scale production capacity is 17300-18000 yuan / ton, which has strong
support for aluminum prices.
Under the background of long-term energy transition and carbon neutrality, the bottom range of aluminum prices has risen steadily
.
Short- and medium-term aluminum prices fluctuated in range and repeatedly bottomed out
.