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The center of gravity of Shanghai copper fluctuates upwards and may show a pattern of higher in the short term

 Last Update: 2022-12-24
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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1 2 dibromopropane

center stage

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Overnight, Shanghai copper 2203 opened at 73320 yuan / ton, the center of gravity rose during the session, the highest range touched 73650 yuan / ton, and closed at 73390 yuan / ton
.
Overnight, London copper opened at 10230 US dollars / ton, the US market session fluctuated downward, tested down 10121.
5 US dollars / ton and then turned higher and rushed 10182 US dollars / ton, and then the center of gravity fell back below the daily moving average, and finally closed at 9820 US dollars / ton, up 0.
86%.

Shanghai copper

At the macro level, the US CPI rose 7.
5% year-on-year in January, again hitting a 40-year high, and after the data was released, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 2%, the highest
since 2019.
The market predicts that a 50 basis point rate hike next month is as likely as high as 80
%.

Fundamentally, the TC price index has risen slightly, and the Erenhot railway port has successively resumed import business such as tons of bagged copper concentrate, and the resumption of the port has eased the tension at the domestic mine end in the early stage, and the supply of domestic copper ore end after the holiday is relatively abundant, but at the smelting end, at present, Europe and even the United States, because of natural gas prices and high freight rates, the production cost of copper and aluminum and other varieties has increased significantly, which makes the price once again boosted by the supply side, and the refined copper smelting enterprises have relatively few holidays during the Spring Festival.
However, scrap copper companies are generally on holiday, and the price spread of refined scrap is expected to continue to decline
in February.

In terms of consumption, affected by the year-end holiday, the weekly copper pole operating rate before the Spring Festival holiday was 34.
54%, a sharp decrease of 22.
1%
from the previous month.
After the Spring Festival, most copper rod enterprises will resume work normally, and the copper rod operating rate will rebound, but due to the impact of downstream resumption time, logistics and transportation, and demand, it is expected that the recovery rate will be limited
.

In terms of stocks, on February 10, the LME destocked 0.
1 million tons to 76,300 tons, and SHFE stocks rose 0.
2 million tons to 26,500 tons
.
Overall, the current fundamental changes are still limited, and the impact of inflation expectations on copper prices is positive, and copper prices may show a volatile pattern
.

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