The characteristics of the downstream consumption peak season continue in July, the coal market will see both supply and demand boom

Reading the tips　For thermal coal, if the effect of guaranteeing supply is still not as good as expected, the superimposed demand will reach a peak, and the overall inventory of each link is not high, the supply of thermal coal will remain tight, and the price will still have some support, but further increases are possible The sex is not big
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In June, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal increased significantly in all sectors of the market
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The author believes that the rise in coal prices is mainly due to the tight supply of thermal coal and coking coal

For the coal market trend in July, the author analyzes the following aspects:

On the supply side, the implementation of the domestic coal supply guarantee policy still needs to be observed
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In the face of the continued tight supply situation, in late June, relevant departments again proposed to strengthen coal supply

In terms of imports, China’s import of coal is too dependent on countries such as Indonesia, and import prices are easily affected by rising domestic coal prices, and there is limited room for increase in imports
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Indonesia is the country's most important source of coal imports

In terms of demand, the overall demand for thermal coal and coking coal is expected to be relatively good
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For thermal coal, July will enter the peak summer power consumption peak.
Although hydropower output is also picking up, from the historical seasonal law, the increase in hydropower is difficult to make up for the gap in peak power demand

In terms of prices, thermal coal prices are expected to be relatively stable
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Staff of relevant departments said that with the growth of hydropower and solar power generation in the summer, as well as the increase in coal production and imports, the contradiction between coal supply and demand will tend to ease

For thermal coal, if the effect of ensuring supply is still not as good as expected, the superimposed demand will reach a peak, and the overall inventory in each link is not high, the supply of thermal coal will remain tight, and the price will still have certain support.

It is expected that it will not fall sharply for the time being.

　　For coking coal, the domestic coking coal output growth space is limited, imported coal is still limited due to various reasons, and the overall coking coal supply situation is still tight
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However, in June, under the stimulus of the short-term production suspension of some coal mines, the price of some coal types rose too much.
If the relevant departments start to reduce crude steel production in July, it is expected that the prices of some coal types may fall to a certain extent