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Since June, in the context of continued weakening of supply and demand, the price of Hujiao has continued to fall
.
Among them, the 2109 contract fell from the lowest of 13,400-13500 yuan/ton to the first line of 12,515 yuan/ton this Tuesday, a record low since October last year
Expectations of monetary tightening increase
Benefiting from several rounds of large-scale economic stimulus in European and American countries and the continuous recovery of the new crown vaccination rate, the global economic activity has steadily increased
.
According to the U.
S.
Department of Labor, the annual CPI rates in April and May were 4.
Although Fed Chairman Powell and other Fed officials are trying to persuade the market that high inflation is only temporary from the beginning of the year to date, but in the context of the increasingly clear logical path of universal immunization, economic recovery, and monetary policy tightening, the Fed will discuss the future And the start of QE reduction will become the most concerned event of the market, and the risk appetite of the global financial market will also be reduced
.
Supply pressure continues to rise
In 2021, the absolute amount of natural natural rubber in the world will remain high
.
Data show that the total output of the member countries of the Natural Rubber Producing Countries Association reached 834,200 tons in May, a sharp increase of 8.
24% from the 770,700 tons in the same period last year, and a decrease of 1.
14% from the average of the past five years
Based on the estimation of the increase in production in the past five years, it is expected that the monthly rubber production of member countries from June to December in 2021 will reach 878,700 tons, 1.
0255 million tons, 1.
Tire industry boom
Recently, the shipments of domestic tire manufacturers have not improved significantly, and the inventory of finished products is still passively increasing
.
The reason behind the weakening of the tire industry's prosperity is the significant decline in the sales of the terminal car market from the previous month
On the whole, global liquidity tightening is expected to gradually increase in the future, and the supply and demand side of the rubber market is also facing the risk of continued weakening.
It is expected that the futures price of the Hujiao 2109 contract will remain weak in the future, and the road to bottoming has not yet ended
