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After the May Day holiday, the copper market changed sharply, leading the decline in non-ferrous metals, basically giving up the gains recorded in the previous two months
.
On Friday, the Shanghai copper main contract 1607 contract continued the pullback trend, but near the close, from the low level has recovered, cutting some of the intraday decline, closing at 36620 yuan / ton, down 0.
6% from yesterday's closing price, its daily closing price fell back to the low point since April 18 this year, down 6.
2%
from the high of 39040 yuan / ton in this round of rebound.
On the macro front, the recent decline in copper prices was triggered by the poor performance of the manufacturing PMI in most economies around the world in April, which heightened concerns about the off-season demand in the copper market
.
In May, most central banks in the world entered a policy vacuum, and there was no hope of further monetary policy easing, while the uncertainty of the Brexit referendum and the Fed's interest rate hike in June continued to disturb, suppressing the enthusiasm of funds to do more copper, and copper is prone to fall and rise
in the short term.
In terms of the market, Shanghai copper continued to fall last Friday, falling below 36,900 yuan / ton, making the current copper quotation from discount to premium, good copper opened the market to report a premium of 20 yuan / ton, flat water copper reported a discount of 10 yuan / ton was closed
in seconds.
Trading was active at the beginning of the morning, and downstream was more active
than before due to a sharp decline in the market.
The recovery in early trading led to an increase in the proportion of imported copper market and an increase
in market supply varieties.
The overall bullish sentiment on the copper market continued to drive, but the rapid rise also dampened trade flows
.
In terms of imports and exports, data show that China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in April were 450,000 tons, down 21% month-on-month, but increased by 4.
7% year-on-year, while imports of unwrought copper and copper products from January to April were 1.
88 million tons, up 23% year-on-year, setting a record high in the same period in history
.
Generally speaking, China's increase in copper imports should benefit copper prices, but from the performance of copper prices this year, the positive correlation between the two has weakened, and the increasing copper imports have caused the market to worry about
the increased supply pressure on China's copper market.
To sum up, in the short term, the uncertainty of the macro environment has increased, and the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in the copper market has intensified, making investors lack confidence in long, and in the long-short divergence, the short position is dominated for the time being
.
It is expected that copper prices may start a phased adjustment of the market, the main trend of Shanghai copper is mainly volatile, and the first support below focuses on 35,000 yuan / ton
.
